The first meeting was everything you’d expect from a hatefest like Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: action-packed, thrilling, and competitive. Both programs will give it a go again on Saturday as the Dukies trek to Chapel Hill for an encore of both teams’ regular season schedules. Will Duke beat the Tar Heels anew? Or will North Carolina end the Blue Devils’ 10-game win streak? You can also click here for the preview of Butler vs. Providence.
[sc:MarchMadness ]Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
Where: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill
When: Saturday, March 7, 9:00 PM ET
Line: Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels – view all NCAA Basketball lines
Betting on the Duke Blue Devils
Duke is one game away from finishing its regular season schedule after beating the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Wednesday, 94-51. But don’t expect the Blue Devils to take it easy as they engage fierce nemesis North Carolina in a rematch on Saturday.
[sc:NCAAB240banner ]In the first meeting with the Tar Heels, Jahlil Okafor (12 points, 13 rebounds) took a backseat and let Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook drive Duke to a 92-90 victory on February 18. Jones completely outplayed North Carolina counterpart Marcus Paige, tallying 22 points, adding seven rebounds, and seven assists. Cook, on the other hand, had 22 points on 7-of-15 shooting from the field, which included six threes on nine attempts. The duo’s combined nine turnovers, however, helped North Carolina keep the game close, despite being an 8.5-point road underdog.
Overall, Duke finished with 21 turnovers, which partly explains why it was massively outshot by North Carolina, 83-65. Limiting those turnovers will go a long way for Duke, which enters Saturday’s contest 66th in the nation in defensive efficiency with 96.4 points allowed per opponents’ 100 possessions.
Duke’s reserves must also find a way to join the scoring parade this time around. Duke’s bench was heavily outscored by North Carolina’s backups, 32-7. Grayson Allen seems to be up to the task based on his scoring outburst in the Wake Forest game, where he dropped a season-high 27 points off the bench.
Duke is 3-1 ATS in its last four games.
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Betting on the North Carolina Tar Heels
Regardless of what’s on the line, beating Duke will always be a sweet victory for the Tar Heels. It will help them do just that if Paige can get it together, and if they could find a way to contain Duke’s overpowering offense.
Paige, who leads the team in scoring with 13.2 points per game, chose the wrong night to struggle with his shot, as he finished with just five points in front of a national audience on a poor 2-of-11 shooting from the field versus Duke. Since that defeat, Paige has been inconsistent on offense. He put up 13 and 17 points against Georgia Tech and Miami (FL), respectively, while coming up with identical seven-point outputs in the the NC State game and in North Carolina’s 81-49 win on Tuesday against Georgia Tech.
Justin Jackson, meanwhile, was also out of his element in the February showdown with Duke. He scored just two points on a miserable 1-of-8 field goal shooting. But unlike Paige, Jackson seemed to have rounded back to form of late, averaging 12.8 points and 4.5 rebounds over the last four games. Thus far this season, the 6-8 guard-forward is averaging 9.9 points and 3.8 rebounds per game.
But even with Paige and Jackson conspicuously struggling, North Carolina was able to hang with Duke behind the solid games of Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson, J.P. Tokoto—combined for 51 points—and a stout bench. Those kind of productions along with an improved defense should help North Carolina turn the tide to its favor on Saturday against Duke, which drilled 10 threes in the first meeting.
North Carolina has allowed its last three opponents to average a paltry 57 points per game on a poor 36.6 percent clip. In addition, opponents have shot just 23.7 percent from the three-point area in those games.
North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
Writer’s Prediction
Duke wins, 81-74.
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